Water FractalTier 1
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.9% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.0% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |